Frontrunners losing ground

11.15.07 -- 11:14 AM

By The Australian

FIFTY days out from the first votes in the run for the White House and polls indicate that the presidential race is tightening dramatically on both sides of politics.

The critical state of Iowa will be the first to vote on a nominee for both Democrats and Republicans and there are at least three candidates from each party with a good chance of winning.

New polls yesterday indicate that Democrats Hillary Clinton, Barack Obama and John Edwards are in a statistical deadheat in the state, while among Republicans, social conservative and former Arkansas governor Mike Huckabee is closing in on frontrunner Mitt Romney.

Iowa will set the tone for the early stages of the presidential campaign when voters caucus on January 3. It will be followed by a poll days later in New Hampshire, before climaxing on February 5, when most states will vote for their party's nominee.

The polling results released yesterday underscore the open nature of the contest and that candidates can ill afford campaign slips such as those that have hit the Clinton camp in the past two weeks.

Leading in the polls nationally, Senator Clinton has been hammered by Senator Obama and and Mr Edwards over the past fortnight after a poor performance at the last presidential debate, when she was called out by both men for obfuscation.

The honesty card has been played again in the past few days after it emerged her campaign had been planting questions at town hall meetings.

The Iowa caucuses among likely Democrat voters have been close for months but yesterday's CBS News/New York Times poll put Senator Clinton at 25 per cent, Mr Edwards at 23per cent and Senator Obama at 22 per cent - a statistical dead heat. Another poll yesterday from Strategic Vision had Senator Clinton at 29 per cent, Senator Obama at 27 per cent and Mr Edwards at 20 per cent.

And an average of all the polls over the past few months shows an encouraging trend for Senator Obama, with his polling numbers steadily increasing in Iowa and in other leading primary states. His camp says the results show voters are learning more about him and liking his message for change in Washington.

"We're dead even in Iowa," said Obama adviser David Axelrod. "The polls have closed in New Hampshire. I think the American people are ready for the real change - change, as we say, that they can believe in - and that's what he's offering."

Of Senator Clinton, Mr Axelrod said: "She's good at what she does. She's got a great campaign. They're running a textbook campaign. But it's a campaign designed to get you through an election. It's not designed to bring the country together. It's not designed to solve problems."

More fireworks from the Democrats are expected tomorrow when they meet again for a debate in Las Vegas.

With Republicans, Mr Huckabee has made a big move on Mr Romney, according to the CBS News/New York Times poll.

Mr Romney, at 27 per cent, still holds the lead in the poll but Mr Huckabee is a strong second, at 21 per cent, with a 5per cent margin of error. Former New York mayor Rudy Giuliani is polling at 15 per cent, but his campaign is more focused on winning the big, populous states such as Florida and California.

In New Hampshire, the polls indicate Senator Clinton and Mr Romney continue to hold large leads. But voters in Iowa and New Hampshire are notorious for making up their minds at the last minute and polling suggests about two-thirds of voters in both states have yet to make up their minds on a candidate.

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