Florida proves tough for W.House hopeful Giuliani
01.27.08 -- 12:26 PM
The line that has often won U.S. presidential hopeful Rudy Giuliani his biggest cheers on the Florida campaign trail -- "we have to end illegal immigration" -- met stony silence in a Miami ballroom on Friday.
While not surprising that immigration is a touchy issue for the Latin Builders Association -- replete with Latin American expatriates in an industry dependent on migrant labor -- it underlined how Giuliani's campaign has failed in many ways to catch fire in Florida, the state on which he staked his claim.
Two months ago, the former New York mayor appeared ready to romp to victory in the fourth most populous U.S. state.
A Mason-Dixon poll in November had him at 36 percent with his nearest challenger at 15, apparently vindicating his decision to flout conventional campaign wisdom by skipping early contests and focusing on vote-rich Florida.
But analysts say the subsequent lack of national media coverage appears to have cost him valuable momentum in his bid to win the Republican nomination, and question whether his message is resonating here.
A Mason-Dixon poll released this week showed him third at 18 percent, with former Massachusetts governor Mitt Romney leading at 30 and Arizona Sen. John McCain at 26 percent.
Other polls show he has lost ground in Florida to varying degrees, as well as losing his lead in national polls.
"I wasn't thoroughly impressed with Giuliani, to tell you the truth," said Kevin Amiott, a Miami restaurateur who sat through speeches by McCain, Giuliani and Huckabee on Friday. "He beat around the bush a lot. He just didn't answer the questions."
Adding insult to injury, the New York Times, Giuliani's hometown newspaper, this week endorsed former Vietnam War veteran McCain for the Republican nomination, calling Giuliani a "narrow, obsessively secret, vindictive man."
"Mr. Giuliani's arrogance and bad judgment are breathtaking," the Times editorial said.
Giuliani's focus on Florida has met with criticism. While his opponents were reeling in victories, recognition and momentum in Iowa, New Hampshire, Michigan and South Carolina, he was touring Florida by bus, trying to connect with voters in restaurants, bars, retirement communities and military towns.
He has played hard on his New York roots, hoping for support from the tens of thousands of transplanted New Yorkers in Florida. He has promised support for a national catastrophe fund, a message that should resonate in a hurricane-prone state where people are grappling with skyrocketing insurance rates.
But that hard work, so far, has paid off only in plunging poll numbers.
"Obviously Romney and McCain and Huckabee got a lot of free media out of the early states. Floridians are just starting to pay attention," said Michael Martinez, a political scientist at the University of Florida.
Giuliani's advisers have said it will be tough for him to continue his bid for the presidency if he doesn't win Florida.
Can he turn it around with just three days left before the Florida contest?
"It's a harder state to do it because it's so big and diverse. There's a lot of different areas, a lot of people kind of spread out," Martinez said. "And he's been going in the wrong direction."
(Editing by Michael Christie and Stuart Grudgings)
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