Poll Watch

For Democrats, Increased Fears of a Long Fight

03.16.08 -- 7:55 PM

By ADAM NAGOURNEY and JEFF ZELENY - New York Times

Lacking a clear route to the selection of a Democratic presidential nominee, the party’s uncommitted superdelegates say they are growing increasingly concerned about the risks of a prolonged fight between Senators Hillary Rodham Clinton and Barack Obama, and perplexed about how to resolve the conflict.

Interviews with dozens of undecided superdelegates — the elected officials and party leaders who could hold the balance of power for the nomination — found them uncertain about who, if anyone, would step in to fill a leadership vacuum and help guide the contest to a conclusion that would not weaken the Democratic ticket in the general election.

While many superdelegates said they intended to keep their options open as the race continued to play out over the next three months, the interviews suggested that the playing field was tilting slightly toward Mr. Obama in one potentially vital respect.

Texas Caucus Results Due March 29

03.11.08 -- 6:36 PM

By April Castro - AP

Curious whether Barack Obama or Hillary Rodham Clinton won Texas' Democratic caucuses March 4? The official results won't be available until March 29.

Until then, the last reported results - from 41 percent of the precinct caucuses - show Obama ahead with 56 percent to Clinton's 44 percent.

Obama has won at least 31 delegates from the caucuses and Clinton has won at least 27, according to The Associated Press count. The remaining nine delegates will be awarded after the official results are announced at the end of the month.

Poll: Clinton Fades in Ohio

02.26.08 -- 8:07 AM

By Rasmussen Reports

With just a week to go until the crucial March 4 Democratic Presidential Primaries, Barack Obama continues to gain ground on Hillary Clinton in Ohio.

The latest Rasmussen Reports poll shows Clinton earning 48% of the Ohio Democratic Presidential Primary vote. That’s unchanged from a week ago. Barack Obama’s support has grown to 43%. That’s up from 40% last week and 38% the week before.

Overall, Clinton’s lead is now just five percentage points in Ohio, down from an eight-point advantage last week and fourteen points two weeks ago.

Clinton Faces Daunting Delegate Deficit

02.21.08 -- 5:33 AM

By David Espo - AP

Democratic Sen. Hillary Rodham Clinton must win 57 percent of the remaining primary and caucus delegates to erase Barack Obama's lead, a daunting task requiring landslide-sized victories by a struggling presidential candidate.

Obama's victories in Wisconsin and Hawaii on Tuesday - his ninth and 10th in a row - left him with 1,178 pledged delegates won in primaries and caucuses in The Associated Press' count. Clinton has 1,024.

Another 1,025 remain to be awarded, most of them in contests in 14 states, Guam and Puerto Rico. It takes 2,025 to win the nomination.

Further complicating Clinton's challenge, Obama appears particularly well-positioned to win at least one of the remaining states with ease. Mississippi, with a primary on March 11, fits a pattern of Southern states with large black populations that he has won handily, including South Carolina, Alabama, Georgia and Louisiana.

Exit polls: McCain still has conservative troubles

02.20.08 -- 2:54 AM

By CNN

John McCain still has trouble with GOP voters who consider themselves "very conservative," but his strength among moderates and those who say they are only "somewhat conservative" made up for the deficit among the more orthodox in Tuesday's GOP primary in Wisconsin, exit polls showed.

McCain voters were also slightly more concerned about the war in Iraq than the economy, which was otherwise the top issue on the minds of Wisconsin Republican voters.

McCain will handily win the primary, CNN projects, with more than 50 percent of the vote, according to the exit polls. CNN also projects that McCain will win the Washington state GOP primary, based on early results that showed him with a commanding lead.

Nearly half of the voters who said they were very conservative cast their ballots for McCain's chief rival, former Arkansas Gov. Mike Huckabee. But McCain voters made up 38 percent of that number -- and 55 percent of the somewhat conservative Republicans went for McCain while 70 percent of the moderates followed suit.

Evangelical voters still flocked to Huckabee, a one-time Baptist minister.

Obama, McCain Sweep Potomac Primaries

02.12.08 -- 7:24 PM

By Jennifer Parker - ABC News

On a primary winning streak, Sen. Barack Obama, D-Ill., has swept the so-called Potomac primaries today, overwhelming defeating Senator Hillary Clinton, D-N.Y., in Democratic contests in Maryland, Virginia and Washington, D.C.

On the Republican side, Sen. John McCain, R-Ariz, won primaries in Maryland and Washington, D.C. and battled back insurgent candidate Mike Huckabee, the former Arkansas governor, in a Virginia primary made close by a high turnout among conservatives and Christian evangelicals.

"Today, the change we seek swept through the Chesapeake and over the Potomac. We won the state of Maryland. We won the Commonwealth of Virginia. And though we won in Washington D.C., this movement won't stop until there's change in Washington," Obama told supporters at a rally in Madison, Wisconsin tonight.

Clinton, Obama in dead heat ahead of big vote

02.03.08 -- 11:56 AM

By David Wiessler - Reuters

WASHINGTON (Reuters) - Democrats Hillary Clinton and Barack Obama were locked in a near dead heat two days before the biggest presidential voting so far while John McCain tried to nail down the Republican nomination for the White House.

With 24 states holding nominating contests on Tuesday, the candidates spent their Sundays appearing on the morning television talk shows and campaigning across the country as polls showed the two races going in opposite directions.

The Democratic race, which Clinton once led handily, had narrowed to a nearly a draw in recent national polls.

Giuliani in trouble as Florida votes

01.29.08 -- 7:16 AM

By John Whitesides - Reuters

WASHINGTON (Reuters) - Republican Rudy Giuliani's White House quest could be in deep trouble as he lags far behind the leaders in a Florida presidential primary he counted on winning, according to a Reuters/C-SPAN/Zogby poll released on Tuesday.

Hours before the start of Florida's voting, Arizona Sen. John McCain held a slim 4-point lead over former Massachusetts Gov. Mitt Romney, 35 percent to 31 percent, in what was essentially a two-man race, the poll found.

Giuliani, the former New York mayor, was battling former Arkansas Gov. Mike Huckabee for a distant third place finish in Florida. Both registered 13 percent.

The margin of error in the poll was 3.3 percentage points.

Florida proves tough for W.House hopeful Giuliani

01.27.08 -- 12:26 PM

By Jim Loney - Reuters

The line that has often won U.S. presidential hopeful Rudy Giuliani his biggest cheers on the Florida campaign trail -- "we have to end illegal immigration" -- met stony silence in a Miami ballroom on Friday.

While not surprising that immigration is a touchy issue for the Latin Builders Association -- replete with Latin American expatriates in an industry dependent on migrant labor -- it underlined how Giuliani's campaign has failed in many ways to catch fire in Florida, the state on which he staked his claim.

Two months ago, the former New York mayor appeared ready to romp to victory in the fourth most populous U.S. state.

A Mason-Dixon poll in November had him at 36 percent with his nearest challenger at 15, apparently vindicating his decision to flout conventional campaign wisdom by skipping early contests and focusing on vote-rich Florida.

Romney climbs into Florida tie with McCain

01.27.08 -- 11:59 AM

By John Whiteside - Reuters

COLUMBIA, South Carolina (Reuters) - Republican Mitt Romney climbed into a tie with John McCain three days before a critical presidential primary in Florida, according to a Reuters/C-SPAN/Zogby poll released on Sunday.

Romney, the former Massachusetts governor, wiped out a 3-point McCain advantage overnight to pull into a deadlock with the Arizona senator at 30 percent. The margin of error in the poll is 3.4 percentage points.

Romney enjoys big leads among Republican voters who describe themselves as conservative or very conservative, while McCain has an edge among Florida moderates ahead of Tuesday's primary.

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